Assessing Irregular Warfare: A Framework for Intelligence by Eric V. Larson, Derek Eaton, Brian Nichiporuk, Thomas S.

By Eric V. Larson, Derek Eaton, Brian Nichiporuk, Thomas S. Szayna

Presents an analytic framework and technique for the intelligence research of abnormal struggle (IW) environments which can function the root for IW intelligence curriculum improvement efforts. Defines IW by way of stylized events: population-centric (such as counterinsurgency) and counterterrorism. presents an in depth overview of IW-relevant protection coverage and technique records and an inventory of suitable doctrinal guides.

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Nevertheless, the success of these operations hinges to a great degree on the timeliness, precision, and responsiveness of intelligence. In either case, at the operational level, as with populationcentric IW environments such as counterinsurgency, such factors as safe houses, enclaves of popular support, arms smuggling networks, networks for recruitment and training, weapons caches, and other phenomena are of great interest to the intelligence analyst. 33 The unclassified NMSP-WOT does, however, list a number of annexes that suggest a number of discrete counterterrorism activities, each of which would be presumed to have associated with it a set of intelligence and analytic requirements.

26 This type focuses on the Al Qaeda organization umbrella of ideologically connected, cellular-structured groups; it targets specific individuals or 24 It also is worth noting that the relative importance of these LLOs seems likely to vary across specific IW mission types. 25 “Tactical and Operational competence in conventional warfighting does not necessarily guarantee tactical, operational, or strategic success in operations and activities associated with IW” (Joint Chiefs of Staff, “Irregular Warfare (IW) Execution Roadmap,” undated).

Agent-based rational choice or expected utility models. A family of models—agent-based rational choice models—has been developed to provide computationally based forecasts of complex, multi-actor, real-world political issues such as IW situations. These models incorporate insights from spatial politics, social choice theory, game theory, and expected utility theory in a form that enables policy-relevant fore14 To be sure, and as will be discussed, other states can be important stakeholders and seek to influence internal conflicts; the distinction is relative to interstate, state-versus-state conflicts.

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