China’s Macroeconomic Outlook: Quarterly Forecast and by CMR of Xiamen University

By CMR of Xiamen University

The study workforce makes the next forecasts: First, in 2013 China’s development will stay sturdy and achieve 8.23 percentage, a rise of 0.43 percent issues in comparison with the former yr; even if there's inflation strain due to worldwide financial easing, serious inflation in China is not going to take place, and the shopper fee index (CPI) will stay at 3.11 percentage. moment, the expansion of imports and exports will rebound, however the alternate surplus will lessen additional. ultimately, the percentage of funding in GDP will stay excessive within the brief time period as urbanization promotes the expansion of mounted resources funding, notwithstanding greater in step with capita earning will lead to excessive and regular consumption.

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In both scenarios, the research team assumes that the Chinese government can reduce the growth rate of government revenue by certain percentage points, and in turn, the government can transfer the corresponding decrease in government revenue to residents. By doing so, the share of resident income and consumption in GDP will increase. A slowdown in the growth of government revenue has negative effect on China’s economic growth, while an increase in the share of resident income and consumption has positive effect.

The impact of ASEAN markets on the Chinese foreign trade is still relative limited, and in fairly a long period the Chinese foreign trade would still heavily rely on the markets of western developed countries. Third, the policy and price are the main two bases for the differences views among the research agencies. Until now, it seems that the government is still not determined for the future economic development. In my opinion, the policy should not be too easing that it may be harmful for the future development.

7 The GDP growth rates in the first and the second scenario (Note: GDP_C_SA_1 denotes the growth rate of GDP in the first scenario; GDP_C_SA_2 denotes the growth rate of GDP under the scenario 2nd, and GDP_C_SA_diff denotes the difference between the above two cases (annualized and year-on-year, after seasonal adjustment)) Fig. 12 percentage points in the fourth quarter of 2012 in the second scenario 2 (Fig. 9). In conclusion, if the Chinese government could transfer the decreased part of the government revenue to the low-income residents in the urban and rural areas, although it could not completely eliminate the income gap between the low-income residents and the middle-income residents in the urban and rural areas, there would be a distinct increase in resident income for the low-income residents.

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